Don’t you find that some people are just lucky?

There’s a guy I know (Sean) who wins most of the bottles of booze at the school fair, regularly wins small cash pots from the lottery, and just seems to come up trumps more often than others.

In fact, if you dropped him in a bucket of the brown stuff, he’d come out smelling of roses.

Best selling author Nassim Nicholas Taleb believes that chance plays a bigger part in people’s success (in life and business) than we realise, which he details in ‘Fooled by Randomness.’

If I’m frank though, Taleb hasn’t got any proof this is the case, it’s all based on his extensive knowledge and observations. He’s not saying this is scientifically proven data.

Although, it still makes a very insightful and interesting read.

Taleb places great emphasis on probabilities, saying individuals don’t understand them, and that it’s more luck or chance that something good happens rather than caused by their actions.

Take Sean, the guy I know at the school fair who wins all the booze. I know he’ll spend twenty pounds on twenty-one-pound tickets, when everyone else spends less than a fiver.

Others on average seem to win a bottle, but Sean believes (probabilities) by spending more his chances of winning more bottles (on average), increases significantly.

Taleb thinks it’s simply luck.

The books full of small stories detailing individual scenarios where people believe their good judgement created great performance, when in fact, once analysed, it was probably more luck.

It’s enjoyable to a point, and some of the stories do get you thinking, although it got a little repetitive for me personally. Probably because I’m not as lucky as Sean!

‘Fooled by Randomness’ gets a thumbs up with four stars

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…thank you & see you next time.